Gains on paper

Submitted on 02/23/2007

Never turn your back on a falling tree, as any seasoned lumberjack will tell you. (He'll be the one who still has all his teeth.) And never turn your back on a falling tree stock, as some seasoned value investors are saying. For a long time, investing in wood and paper has been about as much fun as lying face down in a vat of pulp. The financial press writes obituaries for beat-up forestry stocks almost every day, including Domtar, Tembec andâ€”until it recently announced a merger with Bowaterâ€”beleaguered Abitibi-Consolidated.

So why have some of the smartest value investors been buying them lately? Because they see value in the woods, and so should you. The industry is starting to look a little like the steel industry did four or five years ago, at which point a wave of consolidation and resurgent worldwide demand restored it to good health.

Let's start by acknowledging the problems, however. In lumber, the U.S. housing market bubble has burst, and there's little appetite for new homes. Paper? In the news world, we have those newfangled things called TV and the Internet, which are eroding newspaper readership. Pulp? It's used to make paper. To top it off, there are high energy and fibre costs (fibreâ€”be it from trees or recycled paperâ€” is the feedstock for pulp). And don't forget obstreperous old-style unions and govÂernment meddling.

The value hounds are also sniffing at pulp. Fairfax Financial, the insurance conÂglomerate headed by deep-value buyer Prem Watsa, owns about 20% of SFK Pulp Fund, including convertible debentures. Since hitting bottom at $3.60 in November, SFK's unit price has climbed to more than $4.50, and the income trust has resumed paying monthly distributions

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