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Over the last 70 years, value stocks clocked a 13.4% average annual return, vs. 10.2% for growth stocks, according to Ibbotson Associates.

Fairfax Financial

Prem Watsa, chair of insurance conglomerate Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., began to worry about a credit meltdown a few years ago. So he and his investment team devised a defensive strategy. Today, Fairfax is in great shape financially, despite lousy markets.

The company has defied gravity and two weeks ago its credit was upgraded. This reflected its stellar performance on its US$19.8-billion investment portfolio, good operations at its underlying insurance companies and a jump in shareholders' equity from US$2.856-billion in 2006 to US$4.8-billion today.

Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., which has just cashed in on a huge bet against the U.S. bond market, has laid down a wager that the credit crunch will hit Europe with a similar force.

The insurance firm yesterday revealed a 2007 profit of $1.1-billion (U.S.), more than quadruple the previous year's results, thanks to its investment in credit default swaps (CDS), which rise in value when market conditions deteriorate. Fourth-quarter profit more than tripled to $564-million.

Southeastern Asset Management has sold about some of their stake in Fairfax Financial, and now owns 3,015,922 shares.

Read SEC filing.

Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., the insurance company controlled by reclusive chief executive officer Prem Watsa, said Friday it has increased its stake in CanWest Global Communications Corp. as it continues to invest in slumping media stocks.

Mr. Watsa's company boosted its holdings in CanWest to 13.46 per cent of the outstanding subordinate shares, up from 11.1 per cent, with the purchase of 828,500 shares.

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Picking companies to bet on to weather the growing financial crisis in the United States, noted value investor Whitney Tilson appeared on CNBC last week and named just three: McDonald's, Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway, and Canadian financial services conglomerate Fairfax Financial Holdings.

The global credit squeeze is in its "early days," says investor Prem Watsa, who is so bearish that his insurance company has stashed the bulk of its $18-billion investment portfolio into ultrasafe government bonds.

In a rare interview, the chairman of Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. said he thinks it's possible the United States is on the cusp of a prolonged market slide, similar to the one endured by Japan between 1990 and 2003, when the Nikkei index plunged 80 per cent.

Prem Watsa says investors around the world are not being paid enough for the inherent risk in stocks, bonds and real estate. The chair of Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. is not crying poor for successful capitalists like himself, though. He is sounding a warning call to investors, big and small.

The renowned but recently embattled sleuth of under-valued assets – an acolyte of Depression-era investment theorist Benjamin Graham – has acted on his concern to protect his stable of general insurance and re-insurance companies.

Fairfax has buffered its $16 billion (U.S.) investment portfolio against a simultaneous crash of stock and corporate bond prices in case there is what he calls a "hundred-year storm."

Never turn your back on a falling tree, as any seasoned lumberjack will tell you. (He'll be the one who still has all his teeth.) And never turn your back on a falling tree stock, as some seasoned value investors are saying. For a long time, investing in wood and paper has been about as much fun as lying face down in a vat of pulp. The financial press writes obituaries for beat-up forestry stocks almost every day, including Domtar, Tembec and—until it recently announced a merger with Bowater—beleaguered Abitibi-Consolidated.

So why have some of the smartest value investors been buying them lately? Because they see value in the woods, and so should you. The industry is starting to look a little like the steel industry did four or five years ago, at which point a wave of consolidation and resurgent worldwide demand restored it to good health.

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